PMI: Expect a U-Shaped Recovery

From PMI: The Housing & Mortgage Market Review, October 2009

Here are some of the highlights:

While the economy continues to expand, recent economic data suggest that the pace of growth will be slow and the trend will only be unevenly upward. As a result, the slow growth “U” shaped or perhaps even the double-dip “W” shaped outlooks appear to be more likely than the fast growth “V” shaped one. Most of the data still show that the economy is moving forward, however, so the U shaped recovery is still more likely than the W – at least for now.

…

The ongoing oversupply of homes on the market continues to put downward pressure on house prices, although the pickup in sales has tempered this. We project median existing home prices to fall by another
12.1 percent this year, although the biggest declines are likely behind us. House prices should finally stabilize next year as excess inventories are drawn down, resulting in little change in prices over the course of 2010.

Here is the entire presentation:

pmi http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=21142030&access_key=key-1oxu6dd3hr2dhbiz6uvh&page=1&version=1&viewMode=