The Uncertain Housing Outlook - Calculated Risk
I also expect most HAMP modifications to fail, although many borrowers might make their payments for a few years, and then finally default.
Even excluding the HAMP, because of slowdowns in the foreclosure process, the lenders are sitting on a backlog of foreclosures in the pipeline (not REOs, but properties in the process). So there should be an increase in foreclosures soon – how soon, and how many, is a guess.
And on the demand side, the Fed’s purchases of GSE MBS will end in Q1, the interest in the first-time homebuyer tax credit will wane just like the cash-for-clunkers program (even if it is extended), and the FHA will probably be forced to tighten standards (or at least cut loose poor performing lenders).
So my guess is another down turn in the housing market in 2010 (existing home sales and prices), although prices have probably already bottomed in many low end areas.
But the outlook is very uncertain.
Consumer sentiment pulls back in October - Marketwatch
Commercial Real Estate Musical Chairs - Minyanville, Mike Shedlock
Without new business expansion, this setup is nothing more than a game of musical chairs, except no chairs are ever removed. Instead, so-called “desirable chairs” like One Central Park are added every round, not just in Phoenix, but Miami, Chicago, Portland, San Diego, and countless other places.
Do the math. Musical chairs in reverse is not a viable economic model.
How Cheap Money From The Fed Is Blowing A Housing Bubble In Hong Kong - Clusterstock
MSM Reporting as Propaganda (No One Minds Our New Financial Masters Edition) - Yves Smith, Naked Capitalism
Back to the main theme: the media dares not say anything too negative about financial services firms or their government operatives lest they lose access. The private sector has learned the lesson of the Bush Administration, that the threat of freezing a reporter out is a powerful weapon. I have had some well connected readers tell of story ideas that they served up in some detail that the media would not touch out of fear of alienating their sources. This is the sort of thing that one associates with banana republics, but we have been operating on that level for quite some time.
October 16, 2009
Uncategorized