PMI's 2010 Housing & Mortgage Market Review

PMI released it’s 2010 Housing and Mortgage Market Review.

Here are some of the highlights…

Regarding GDP:

Despite the downward revision to third quarter growth, the data already in-hand for the fourth quarter suggest a pickup in the pace of activity. As a result, we have increased our projection for 2009Q4 real GDP growth to 3.5-4.0 percent – which would give the economy two consecutive quarters of at-or-above trend economic growth. We expect the pace of growth to moderate a bit next year as fiscal and monetary policy stimulus begin to wane, but we still project growth of 2.5-3.0 percent. By 2011, the economy should finally grow at an above-trend pace for a more extended period, although still by less than in a typical economic expansion.

Regarding Home Sales:

(New Home) Sales should rise more strongly in 2010, as the job market finally starts to improve and credit markets function better – with existing sales climbing by 8.8 percent and new sales up by 29.2 percent.

Regarding Home Prices:

We project median existing home prices to fall by 12.6 percent in 2009. While there are likely to be some seasonal declines in the winter months, with prices falling by more than 5.0 percent by the spring, stronger sales and reduced inventory should allow prices to be about unchanged over the course of 2010.

Regarding Interest Rates:

…we project a rise in 30-year FRM rates to around 5.75 percent by the end of 2010. This is likely to involve two discrete periods of increases: early in the second quarter when the Fed’s purchase program ends, and in the fourth quarter when market expectations of Fed tightening increase.

Here is the complete report:

pmi2010 http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=24379165&access_key=key-1oksgd8ddcdcthpo04ji&page=1&version=1&viewMode=list