Whenever the “low point” is right now and things are about to get better, be cautious. We’ve seen WAY too many forecasts that look like this over the last six or seven years.
From The Atlantic:
GDP Predictions
A note on reading the graph: The dark blue band represents the “central tendency of projections” and the light blue band represents the full range of projections.
The upshot is that Fed officials believe the economy will hit 3% to 4% yearly growth in the next three years. That’s better than we’re expanding now, but it’s still worse than most recoveries from past recessions.
And here’s their GDP chart with my handy red line:
January 26, 2012 at 7:41 pm
I am skeptical of all of them. The “Big Gun” here is Robert Eyler of Sonoma State who gives great chart. I well remember how enthusiastic agents were in early 2007 when he assured the local Realtor’s Association that prices would never go down withing 50 miles of the California Coast, but they “Might Flatten” inland. He has another performance coming up soon, but I suspect I’ll find something else to spend $50 on…