In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Robert Shiller talks about the continuing downward trend of home prices and a “substantial” risk of a double-dip recession within a year. “We’re at a tipping point,” he states. http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/main.swf

The US economy grew at 1.9% for the last decade, the slowest since the 1930s. Given that government spending is going to go down (at least I hope so), unemployment is going to take some time to get under control; and with the whole developed world in a mess, it is hard to see an economic environment where we can average 3.5% a year for this decade. It is going to be another Muddle Through decade. Unless you are on the margin.

He argues that, effectively, the American middle class is gone. We’ve transitioned from a workforce with a manufacturing middle class to a workforce of Wal-Mart checkers. The bailouts, sold to us as help for the middle class, have only served to make the rich richer and the poor poorer.

I prefer to read and listen to the bloggers, economists, and investment strategists who have actually been right about the housing boom and bust. One of them is Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg. He is smart, likable, and been proven right about how this global debt-deleveraging cycle is playing out. In short, when he talks, I recommend listening.

Even as the stock market rises on news both good and bad, seven trends offer strong headwinds to real growth in the U.S. economy.